PES Manifesto

So how will you vote?

Publié jeudi 12 juin 2008 à 09h49
par Desmond O'Toole (vu 367 fois et 0 commentaires)

The Irish people had to vote twice to ratify the Nice Treaty. In the first referendum in 2001 the Irish people voted NO by 529,000 votes to 453,000 on a turnout of 35%. At the second referendum a year later we voted YES to Nice by 906,000 votes to 535,000 on a much larger turnout of 49%. Almost all of the extra turnout was YES voters who had abstained in the previous referendum. The big question is whether the same pattern will repeat itself this time? If the NO side has so confused and alienated people from the EU that many decide not to vote and we have a low turnout, then we will lose the referendum and Ireland will fail to ratify the Lisbon Treaty. If, however, the Irish people refuse to be misled by the NO side and instead recognise that Lisbon is important for Ireland and for Europe and vote in larger numbers then the Treaty will pass. Turnout will be the key according to this argument, but reality may of course be different. So, my advice is to pay close attention to the turnout figures. If turnout is below 40% we will all need to worry, but if turnout is above 45% then hopefully we will be able to move on with the support of the Irish people.

I'm writing this blog late on Wednesday night after a long session of SMS texting to friends, family and other people I know. I thought it would be worthwhile just to give you a flavour of some of the responses I have received to my texts. One friend tells me that she, her husband and her eldest daughter are all voting YES. Another calls her YES vote a "no-brainer", that is, she doesn't even have to think about voting YES, she will do it automatically. However, a former student friend says, "I think you're wrong. People should vote NO and I'm sure we'll triumph." And another claims to have actually read the Treaty but will not tell me how she is voting. I guess this short selection of responses shows just how close the result of the referendum might be.

However, I got a text message from our party leader, Eamon Gilmore TD, this evening as well. It's worth repeating what Eamon wrote: "Today I ask you to vote YES to Lisbon. A YES vote will deliver significant gains for Ireland while a NO vote will bring doubt and uncertainty." Tomorrow we will learn whether the Irish people will celebrate the gains or whether we will slip back into doubt and uncertainty.

Tags: blogger of the week, traîté, UE